https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/what-if-jair-bolsonaro-wins/
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Once deemed unlikely, reelection would allow Brazil’s president to double down on his cultural agenda and bring an uncertain outlook for foreign policy and the economy.
SÃO PAULO — With polls tightening, a Bolsonaro victory on October 30 — seen as extremely unlikely until recently — no longer seems unthinkable. Indeed, while the majority of pollsters still see former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead, Bolsonaro’s extraordinary spending spree of over 68 billion reais ($13 billion) during the past months seems to have provided the president with a sense of momentum. In addition, a more agile and unscrupulous digital strategy, including an avalanche of fake news shared by government supporters, and a series of missteps by the Lula campaign, including wobbly debate performances, explain why the final result may be much closer than expected.
Given that Lula has enjoyed a comfortable lead during most of the campaign, most analyses about the future of Brazilian politics and foreign policy use the return of the former leftist leader to power as the baseline scenario. In Western capitals around the world, numerous policymakers and commentators did little to hide their giddiness in the face of the former army captain’s seemingly flagging fortunes.
What would a Bolsonaro victory mean for Brazil and its place in the world? In many ways, the governing coalition of a second term would resemble that of the first, even though the so-called “technocratic faction” in Bolsonaro’s government, led by Finance Minister Paulo Guedes, would be less influential than during…
