https://americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-brazil-heads-to-runoff-election/
The first-round vote ended with a margin much slimmer than expected between the main candidates, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
While Lula won the first round by a smaller margin than expected, he remains the favorite in the runoff. Since democratization, all candidates who won the first round have proceeded to win the second round, and Bolsonaro would have to pull off a historic comeback to win reelection—not impossible, but still unlikely. Still, in order to secure victory in the second round, Lula can be expected to intensify his efforts to reach out to centrists. If he wins, the Workers Party (PT), and in particular the left wing of the party, will have far less influence than during his government from 2003-2010.
Lula would also face formidable resistance in Congress, making major progress on several fronts (such as the fight against deforestation) less likely. The Bolsonaro campaign will attempt to use the momentum of yesterday’s stronger than expected showing to catch up, arguing that a second presidential mandate—this time with broader support in Congress—would allow him to implement…
