SÃO PAULO — The year 2023 began with an armed insurrection in Brazil’s capital when thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace on January 8. The year ended with Argentina’s largest unions calling for national strikes and Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro mobilizing troops after a highly controversial referendum about claims on the oil-rich Essequibo region, which belongs to neighboring Guyana.
And yet, despite a challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario, 2023 was not a bad year for Latin America. Throughout the past twelve months, a cautiously optimistic outlook among analysts become increasingly common. Economic growth in 2023 is expected to end up at 2.2%—somewhat better than the 1.7% initially projected, but still below the global average of 3.2%. Most analysts expect growth to decline slightly to 1.9% this year, too little to decisively overcome the deep-seated public discontent that has been so prevalent across Latin America in recent years.
What trends should observers keep an eye on in the region in 2024? Five are worth highlighting:
1. More policy continuity than in previous years
The year ahead can be expected to hold more policy continuity than change across Latin America: Just look at the likely outcomes of a few upcoming presidential races. The Dominican Republic’s Luis Abinader, enjoying approval ratings…
